China's Demographic Time Bomb
The Greatest Demographic Blunder in the History of the World
I have been warning of the perils of China’s one child per couple restriction for about ten years. The utter stupidity of this policy points up a short-sightedness on the part of the Chinese government of epic proportions. This is not just stupid, this is scary stupid. The Chinese government has not just shot themselves in the foot they have blown their foot off. According to a New York Times article of February 29, 2008 by Jim Yardley, it is estimated that China has managed to prevent roughly 400 million births in the last three decades. And as if that is not enough, culturally Chinese couples have overwhelmingly favored male children. I don’t even want to discuss gender driven abortions or what they did with the female infants that did come to term. I do thank God that some made their way to the U.S. and other countries through adoption.
But wait, let’s just think about this. China, the country on the fastest track in the world to economic development and modernization has carved out 400 million people from its population thirty years old and under. Moreover this anemic under thirty population is predominantly male. In the book “Bare Branches, The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population” Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. Den Boer point out that high male to female ratios often trigger domestic and international violence. Duh! Who are they supposed to marry? “Bare Branches” is dead on. It gets worse. According to the Times article: “China’s fertility rate is now extremely low, and the population is rapidly aging, especially in urban areas. Experts have warned that China is steadily moving toward a demographic crisis with too many old people in need of expensive services and too few young workers paying taxes to meet those bills.” There is more. China’s single biggest economic advantage is cheap labor, nearly at the slave level. However according to the Times article “China’s biggest manufacturing centers are already facing labor shortages.” A labor shortage means higher wages. Higher wages mean the loss of China’s competitive edge, their only competitive edge. China is a country that has sealed its own economic doom. We need to watch the attractiveness of higher price Chinese goods as labor costs escalate along with higher shipping costs because of higher oil prices. China’s economy is headed south. So, what is the world going to do with a country of 1.3 billion people when they get hungry?
What is the answer here? I don’t think there is one. I think we just wait until the demographic time bomb explodes. The world is going to be an interesting place.
Kenneth W. Gronbach
7 Comments
Reader Comments (7)
I suspect that China will implement some sort of euthanasia program for the excess elderly that involves harvesting human organs for the international market. Such a program would turn their elderly from being a economic loss to economic profit. As China already harvests organs from prisoners, it only a slight adjustment on the morality scale for their leadership and culture.
I have been giving this issue some additional thought. I wonder if China's leadership feared a revolution and this fear is what actually precipitated the one child policy. No young men- no revolution.
I believe as you do, China has no moral compass. They appear to be incredibly selfish and short sighted. There is NO way to recover from thirty years of stupidity and a 400 million deficit in their demography. Even if they wanted to reverse the process they can't because they have cleverly eliminated the potential parents. No parents, no kids. We have witnessed the beginning of the end of China.
Ken